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Kalshi + Polymarket taxes

Don’t pay more tax than you legally owe.

Compare every applicable tax treatment for your Kalshi and Polymarket trades, see the calculations, and generate IRS-ready forms in minutes.

Run your report Compare the treatments

Free to try. No account needed.

$1,488.00

saved by filing the lowest legal method instead of the priciest, on the same trades.

Live example
Capital gainslowest

$0.00

estimated tax

Ordinary income

$0.00

estimated tax

Gamblinghighest

$1,488.00

estimated tax

Section 1256 (60/40)

$0.00

estimated tax

Net -$3,250.00 for the year, from $6,200.00 won and $9,450.00 lost. That is what all four bills are worked out on, and they are not the same. Real engine output, no mockups.

Stored only if you share it

Your trades are processed in memory to build your report, not stored or logged unless you opt in to share your export.

No keys, no logins, no funds

A file you export yourself, or a wallet address that’s already public. Read-only.

No AI in the math

Every figure is a deterministic calculation, tested against IRS worked examples.

Priced in real money

The tax treatment isn’t settled. The market agrees.

The IRS has never ruled on how prediction-market trades are taxed. On Polymarket, real money is betting on whether it ever officially calls sports contracts gambling, and the crowd puts that near 9%. Nobody knows, and even the direction is contested.

  • No official answer exists yet. Filers are split across four different tax treatments, and each one produces a very different bill.
  • A formal gambling ruling is the one outcome that triggers the harsh 2026 90% loss cap, which is exactly what this market prices. Unlikely today, but far from settled.
  • WagerMints computes all four treatments from your real trades, so you file on the math and the citations, not on a guess.
See all four on your trades
Latest · PolymarketView market

Will sports event contracts be taxed as gambling?

24%chance it’s ruled gambling by Apr 15, 2027
Yes · gamblingNo · not gambling
24%77%
36%24%

Real-money odds since Jun 2026. As of Oct 24, 2026. Resolves on formal IRS or Treasury guidance.

How it works

From an export to a filed number, in about a minute.

  1. kalshi-export.csv
    typetickerprice
    TradeYES94¢
    TradeNO6¢
    Step 1

    Load your history

    Drop a Kalshi CSV or paste a Polymarket wallet address. Unredeemed losses and settled markets both come along.

  2. 1256
    Cap
    Ord
    Gamb
    Step 2

    The engine works every position

    Fees fold into basis. The same realized gains run through all four tax methods at once.

  3. 8949 CSV$8,290
    Step 3

    File with the numbers shown

    Four bills side by side, a Form 8949 CSV, and a print-ready report for your accountant.

Four legal answers

Same trades. Four different bills.

The IRS hasn’t ruled on prediction markets, so all four treatments are in active use today, and they rarely land on the same number. We compute every one from your trades so you can choose on purpose.

Sample year

One trader’s Kalshi + Polymarket history, filed four ways.

Lowest legal bill highlighted

Capital gains

$3,840

Ordinary income

$4,580

Gambling

$9,120

lowest

Section 1256

$2,190

The spread between highest and lowest is real money. Your own trades will produce a different ranking, and this is why the side-by-side comparison matters.

Method 01

Capital gains

Treated like stocks or crypto.

Good for: The common default, and what most crypto tax preparers use.

Method 02

Ordinary income

Added to your income like a paycheck.

Good for: Simplest to file. Often not the cheapest.

Method 03

Gambling

Treated as wagering.

Good for: Usually the worst result for a trader. Shown so you can see what to avoid.

Method 04often lowest

Section 1256 (60/40)

Treated like regulated futures.

Good for: Potentially the lowest for Kalshi, but legally aggressive. Confirm with a CPA.

See how each one works, and when it fits Run your own four-way comparison
Why the numbers hold up

Built against real exports, not assumed formats.

01

Losses you never claimed still count

A losing Polymarket position leaves no on-chain trace, so most tools silently drop it. We check on-chain resolutions and book the loss anyway.

On-chain record Missing

Even without a REDEEM row, a resolved losing market is closed against your basis.

02

Kalshi lists the Yes price on No trades

Kalshi’s export lists the Yes price on every trade, even when you bought No. Read it naively and you mis-cost No positions by up to 15x.

6¢94¢

Direction=No means your cost is the complement.

03

The 2026 gambling cap is modeled

Win $100k and lose $100k in 2026 and the new law can still tax you on $10k you never made. The engine computes it and flags what’s debated.

Break-even year$10k taxable
04

Every rule has a test with a citation

The $3,000 loss cap, carryforwards, session netting, the 60/40 split: each one is a worked example traced to the actual IRS instructions. No AI in the math.

§1211(b) $3,000 cap §1222 ST/LT split §165(d) session netting §1256(a)(3) 60/40 OBBBA 90% cap
FAQ

Questions traders actually ask

What people ask before their first filing.

FilingTreatmentsData & privacyPricing

Still unsure which method fits you?

Bring the print-ready report to a tax professional. It’s built to be reviewed, signed, and filed.

Build your report

Find your page

Taxes for your platform and your state

What each app sends you at tax time, how your state taxes winnings and losses, and calculators for a quick number.

By platform

All platforms

Calculators

All calculators

By state

Compare all states
From the blog

Prediction market tax questions, answered

All posts
Pricing

Free to see your numbers. $39 gets the tax year done.

Free

See what you would owe under all four methods, no account needed.

$0always
  • Upload your CSV or a Polymarket wallet address
  • Preview your results instantly, no account needed
  • Compare all four tax treatments side by side
  • See your estimated tax under each one
  • FIFO lot matching with fees folded into basis
  • Processed in memory, not stored unless you share it
Run your report

Pro

Free in beta

Filled IRS forms and a report your accountant can sign off on.

$39per tax year
  • Everything in Free, plus the files you actually file with
  • Form 8949 CSV export, ready for FreeTaxUSA or your tax software
  • IRS-ready PDFs: Form 8949, Schedule D and Form 6781
  • An official report with citations, ready for your accountant
  • A CPA summary letter that explains how the numbers were reached
  • Unlimited recalculations and downloads for the tax year

Free for everyone during the beta. $39 per tax year after, one license per year, never a subscription.

Run your report
Open beta

Want to help shape it?

WagerMints is in beta. Come test features, flag a weird CSV, ask for something, or help build it. The fastest way to reach us is Discord.

Join the beta Discord

See every legal way to file it, then choose the lowest.

About a minute with a Kalshi export or a Polymarket wallet address.

Run your report Get the 8949 CSV